Burton Albion 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burton Albion at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host Gillingham at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 2D 1L from 6 League One matches — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 1D 0L at Pirelli Stadium — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have recorded 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gillingham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in League One this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Burton Albion are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.83 PPG ahead (1.83 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burton Albion register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Gillingham in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gillingham trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burton Albion 40% and Gillingham 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burton Albion 40% | Gillingham 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.20 xG and Gillingham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.970 / defence 1.061 | Gillingham attack 0.754 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 0.881. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Burton Albion games / 5 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 22%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Gillingham 4.55. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 35% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. This conflicts with form data: Burton Albion 67% | Gillingham 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Burton Albion 1.20 / Gillingham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.970 / def 1.061 | Gillingham attack 0.754 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.022 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gillingham xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Gillingham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Gillingham?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Gillingham part of?
Burton Albion vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 48% chance of winning, Gillingham a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Burton Albion and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Gillingham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.97) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.29
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.91
0.70
Gillingham xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.70 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Gillingham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gillingham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 80%.
Defensively: Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Gillingham away?
Burton Albion's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 2.33 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Gillingham in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
1
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Gillingham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Gillingham 1-3 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Gillingham?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Burton Albion at 67%, Gillingham at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Burton Albion and 33% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gillingham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Burton Albion's games and 67% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burton Albion's recent games and 33% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Gillingham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.20 xG and Gillingham 0.70 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Gillingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 48% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 22%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 40%, Gillingham 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Gillingham's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burton Albion arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.