Burton Albion 1-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 League One fixtures this term — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cheltenham's overall League One record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cheltenham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Burton Albion. A 1.25 PPG lead over Cheltenham (2.25 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burton Albion 25% and Cheltenham 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | Cheltenham 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Cheltenham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.046 / defence 1.020 | Cheltenham attack 0.974 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 0.990. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Burton Albion games / 4 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 47% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Cheltenham 3.85. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Burton Albion 25% | Cheltenham 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 47% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Burton Albion 1.43 / Cheltenham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.046 / def 1.020 | Cheltenham attack 0.974 / def 1.425 | league avg home 0.960 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cheltenham xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham part of?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 47% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burton Albion and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.97x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.74
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Cheltenham xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.98 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cheltenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Burton Albion by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cheltenham heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Cheltenham in 100%.
Defensively: Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Cheltenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Burton Albion or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Cheltenham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 25%, Cheltenham 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Burton Albion and 75% for Cheltenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Burton Albion's games and 100% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Burton Albion's matches and 75% of Cheltenham's.
Do Burton Albion and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Burton Albion and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Cheltenham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Cheltenham attack 0.97 / defence 1.43, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 47% | Draw 27% | Cheltenham 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Cheltenham 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burton Albion arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cheltenham conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.