Port Vale 0-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 36%, yet in-form Wigan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Port Vale vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wigan make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League One (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Port Vale have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wigan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Wigan have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wigan are 0.60 PPG clear of Port Vale over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Wigan and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Port Vale 0–1 Wigan — a Wigan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Port Vale — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Wigan — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 41% versus Wigan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port Vale 41% | Wigan 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.08 xG and Wigan 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.609 / defence 0.917 | Wigan attack 0.993 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.176. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.609 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Wigan's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Data: built from Port Vale's last 41 games and Wigan's last 89.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 29% | Wigan 35%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.81 | Draw 3.39 | Wigan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wigan (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 40% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 29% | Wigan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Port Vale 1.08 / Wigan 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.609 / def 0.917 | Wigan attack 0.993 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Wigan xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Wigan kick off?
Port Vale vs Wigan kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Wigan?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Port Vale vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Wigan part of?
Port Vale vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 36% chance of winning, Wigan a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Port Vale and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Port Vale vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.99x) against Port Vale's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 41 games and Wigan's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.39
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Wigan xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.07 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 87 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 31W 25D 31L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 27W 30D 30L from 87 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Port Vale against 1.28 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 43 home games (16W 14D 13L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 9W 19D 15L from their last 43 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Wigan in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 31W 25D 31L in their last 87 games (1.36 PPG), while Wigan have gone 27W 30D 30L in their last 87 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Wigan away?
Port Vale's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.44 PPG; Wigan away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Wigan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Port Vale and Wigan, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
2
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Wigan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Wigan have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Port Vale 0-0 Wigan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Wigan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Port Vale) and 37% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 40% of games; Wigan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 56% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Port Vale's recent games and 37% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Port Vale's recent matches and 67% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Wigan finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.08 xG and Wigan 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.61 / defence 0.92 against Wigan attack 0.99 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 36% | Draw 29% | Wigan 35%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 41%, Wigan 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wigan's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.36 PPG, Wigan 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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