Port Vale 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Rotherham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Rotherham meet at Vale Park in League One (matchday 42). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Port Vale have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rotherham have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Rotherham have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Port Vale against 0.60 for Rotherham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Rotherham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Port Vale 1–2 Rotherham — a Rotherham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port Vale — key trading statistics (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rotherham — key trading statistics (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 42% versus Rotherham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.11 xG and Rotherham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.671 / defence 1.085 | Rotherham attack 0.726 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.124. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Port Vale's last 38 games and Rotherham's last 85.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 41% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 29%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.47 | Draw 3.26 | Rotherham 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port Vale 50% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 41% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Port Vale 1.11 / Rotherham 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.671 / def 1.085 | Rotherham attack 0.726 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rotherham xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Rotherham kick off?
Port Vale vs Rotherham kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 7 April 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Rotherham?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Port Vale vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Rotherham part of?
Port Vale vs Rotherham is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 41% chance of winning, Rotherham a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Port Vale and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Port Vale vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.73x) against Port Vale's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 38 games and Rotherham's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
41%
2.47
31%
3.26
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.99
0.89
Rotherham xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.89 for Rotherham, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port Vale's recent record stands at 29W 24D 31L from 84 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 38L across 84 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Port Vale against 1.14 for Rotherham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 15W 13D 13L from their last 41 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 8W 8D 25L across their last 41 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.06 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 29W 24D 31L in their last 84 games (1.32 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 25W 21D 38L in their last 84 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Rotherham away?
Port Vale's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.41 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rotherham in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Port Vale and Rotherham, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Rotherham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Rotherham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2026: Port Vale 1-0 Rotherham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 44%, Rotherham 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Port Vale) and 39% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 39% of games; Rotherham in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port Vale's recent matches and 37% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Port Vale's recent games and 39% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Port Vale's recent matches and 73% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Rotherham 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.11 xG and Rotherham 0.89 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.67 / defence 1.08 against Rotherham attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 41% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 29%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rotherham's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.32 PPG, Rotherham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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