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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port Vale and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 31, as Port Vale and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights