Port Vale 2-3 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Burton Albion travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 September 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Port Vale's 20% rate and Burton Albion's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port Vale, 1 for Burton Albion and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 45% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 51% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.901 / defence 0.797 | Burton Albion attack 0.704 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.113. Port Vale's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Port Vale games / 53 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 49% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 20%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Burton Albion 5.00. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Burton Albion's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 20% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 49% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 32% | xG Port Vale 1.18 / Burton Albion 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.901 / def 0.797 | Burton Albion attack 0.704 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Burton Albion xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Burton Albion kick off?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 September 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Port Vale 2 - 3 Burton Albion.
Where is Port Vale vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Burton Albion part of?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 49% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Port Vale and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Burton Albion in?
Port Vale (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.90x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.22
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.80
0.62
Burton Albion xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.62 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 18W 11D 24L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 13D 25L from 53 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.23 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (11W 5D 10L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.11 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Burton Albion away?
Port Vale's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.46 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Burton Albion runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Port Vale's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Burton Albion have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 38%, Burton Albion 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Port Vale) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 27% of games; Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Port Vale's recent matches and 54% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Port Vale's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Port Vale 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Port Vale 2-3 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 0.62 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 0.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Burton Albion attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 49% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 20%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 51%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.23 PPG, Burton Albion 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.