Derby 4-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Northampton make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in League One, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Northampton (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 0.50 PPG lead over Northampton (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Northampton — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Northampton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.920 / defence 0.805 | Northampton attack 0.790 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.131. Data: 60 Derby games / 14 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Northampton 4.76. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Northampton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Derby 1.28 / Northampton 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.920 / def 0.805 | Northampton attack 0.790 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Derby (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Northampton xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Northampton kick off?
Derby vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Northampton?
Derby 4 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Derby vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Northampton part of?
Derby vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 50% chance of winning, Northampton a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derby and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Northampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Northampton in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Northampton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.92x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.79x) against Derby's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 60/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.39
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derby xG
Total xG
2.00
0.72
Northampton xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derby and 0.72 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Derby have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 27W 16D 17L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 27W 16D 17L from 60 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Derby against 1.62 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 13W 7D 9L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.28 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Northampton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while Northampton have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Northampton away?
Derby's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.83 PPG; Northampton away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Derby or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Northampton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Northampton?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Northampton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when Northampton 1-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Northampton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Derby) and 38% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Northampton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 48% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Northampton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Northampton in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Northampton 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.72 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Northampton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.62 PPG, Northampton 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.