Burton Albion 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town's overall League One record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fleetwood Town away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 3–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Fleetwood Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Fleetwood Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.826 / defence 1.061 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.874 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.136. Data: 54 Burton Albion games / 53 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Fleetwood Town 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 60% | Fleetwood Town 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Burton Albion 1.12 / Fleetwood Town 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.826 / def 1.061 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.874 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fleetwood Town xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 37% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 3W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.83) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.87x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
Fleetwood Town xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.05 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 13D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (14W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.11 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.06 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 17D 22L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.35 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
1
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 42%, Fleetwood Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burton Albion) and 42% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 58% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burton Albion's recent games and 42% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Fleetwood Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.15 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.