🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Bolton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Bolton 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.77 xG and Bolton 1.50 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.64 / defence 1.15 against Bolton attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port Vale 19% | Draw 26% | Bolton 55%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port Vale's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bolton's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.33 PPG, Bolton 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights