Port Vale 1-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bolton (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Port Vale face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Port Vale welcome Bolton to Vale Park in League One (matchday 39). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Port Vale — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Port Vale have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bolton away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Bolton have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Port Vale.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Port Vale 0–4 Bolton — a Bolton win.
Bolton have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bolton in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 43% versus Bolton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Bolton 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port Vale surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Bolton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.77 xG and Bolton 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.635 / defence 1.152 | Bolton attack 1.098 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.183. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Port Vale's last 35 games and Bolton's last 84.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 19% | Draw 26% | Bolton 55%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 5.19 | Draw 3.81 | Bolton 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port Vale 50% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 39 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 19% | Draw 26% | Bolton 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Port Vale 0.77 / Bolton 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.635 / def 1.152 | Bolton attack 1.098 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Bolton (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bolton xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Bolton kick off?
Port Vale vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Port Vale vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Bolton part of?
Port Vale vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 19% chance of winning, Bolton a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Port Vale and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Port Vale vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.64x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 35 games and Bolton's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
19%
5.19
26%
3.81
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.27
1.50
Bolton xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
23.16
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.50 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 28W 24D 29L from 81 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 36W 22D 23L across 81 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.33 PPG, Bolton on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 14W 13D 13L from their last 40 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 13W 13D 14L across their last 40 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton in 60%.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Bolton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 28W 24D 29L in their last 81 games (1.33 PPG), while Bolton have gone 36W 22D 23L in their last 81 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Bolton away?
Port Vale's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.38 PPG; Bolton away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bolton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2025, when Bolton won Bolton 4-0 Port Vale.
Port Vale's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
1
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bolton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Port Vale 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 45%, Bolton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Port Vale) and 45% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Port Vale's recent matches and 62% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Port Vale's recent games and 45% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Port Vale's recent matches and 68% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Bolton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Bolton 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.77 xG and Bolton 1.50 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.64 / defence 1.15 against Bolton attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 19% | Draw 26% | Bolton 55%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.33 PPG, Bolton 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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