Port Vale 0-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon meet at Vale Park in League One (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Port Vale's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Port Vale, 0.60 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Port Vale, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Oct 2025, ended Port Vale 1–1 AFC Wimbledon — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 42% versus AFC Wimbledon 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port Vale 43% | AFC Wimbledon 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.847 / defence 1.273 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.994 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.094. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AFC Wimbledon's projected output up. Data: built from Port Vale's last 26 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 27.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 35%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.50 | Draw 4.02 | AFC Wimbledon 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 40% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Port Vale 1.49 / AFC Wimbledon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.847 / def 1.273 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.994 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Port Vale 0 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 40% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.99x) against Port Vale's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 26 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
40%
2.50
25%
4.02
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.88
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.38 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port Vale come into this having played 72 games, going 27W 20D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.46 PPG from 72 outings (29W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Port Vale against 1.46 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Port Vale's home form reads 14W 10D 11L across their last 35 home games, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 35 away games (12W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.12 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 27W 20D 25L in their last 72 games (1.40 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 29W 18D 25L in their last 72 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Port Vale's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.49 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Port Vale or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon, the earliest from October 2024. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 3 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2026: Port Vale 0-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 43%, AFC Wimbledon 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Port Vale) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 40% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Port Vale's recent matches and 49% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Port Vale's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 40% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 35%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.40 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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