Plymouth 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 44%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Plymouth welcome Mansfield Town to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 3W 2D 5L at Home Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Plymouth, 1 for Mansfield Town and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Mansfield Town 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.02 xG and Mansfield Town 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.771 / defence 1.188 | Mansfield Town attack 1.010 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.106. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Plymouth games / 71 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 29% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 44%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 40% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 29% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Plymouth 1.02 / Mansfield Town 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.771 / def 1.188 | Mansfield Town attack 1.010 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mansfield Town xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Plymouth vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Mansfield Town?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Plymouth vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Mansfield Town part of?
Plymouth vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 29% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Plymouth and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Mansfield Town?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Mansfield Town in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.77x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.62
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.34
1.33
Mansfield Town xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.33 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 22W 15D 34L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town's form line: 25W 15D 31L from 71 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.14 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (14W 8D 14L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 11W 9D 16L from 36 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 25W 15D 31L in their last 71 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Mansfield Town away?
Plymouth's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.39 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Mansfield Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Mansfield Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Plymouth 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 64%, Mansfield Town 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Plymouth and 58% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Plymouth's games and 61% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Plymouth's matches and 58% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Plymouth and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Mansfield Town finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.02 xG and Mansfield Town 1.33 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Mansfield Town attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 29% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 44%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Mansfield Town 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.14 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.