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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Port Vale 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Port Vale 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.77 xG and Port Vale 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 53% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 24%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Port Vale 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.27 PPG, Port Vale 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights