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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burton Albion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Burton Albion 3-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.92 xG and Burton Albion 1.46 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.66 / defence 1.41 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 24% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 50%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Burton Albion's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.06 PPG, Burton Albion 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights