Plymouth 1-2 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 39%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Bolton at Home Park in League One (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Plymouth's games and 60% of Bolton's (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Plymouth have won 3, Bolton 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Plymouth 0–2 Bolton — a Bolton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bolton in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Bolton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.34 xG and Bolton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.075 / defence 1.206 | Bolton attack 1.053 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.122. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bolton's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 39 games and Bolton's last 85.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 35% | Draw 25% | Bolton 39%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.83 | Draw 3.93 | Bolton 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 35% | Draw 25% | Bolton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Plymouth 1.34 / Bolton 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.075 / def 1.206 | Bolton attack 1.053 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bolton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bolton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Bolton kick off?
Plymouth vs Bolton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Plymouth 1 - 2 Bolton.
Where is Plymouth vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Bolton part of?
Plymouth vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 35% chance of winning, Bolton a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plymouth and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 39 games and Bolton's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.93
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Bolton xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.42 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 29W 18D 38L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Bolton's form line: 37W 23D 25L from 85 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.24 PPG, Bolton on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.49 PPG from their last 43 home games (18W 10D 15L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 14W 13D 16L from their last 43 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.44 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Bolton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 29W 18D 38L in their last 85 games (1.24 PPG), while Bolton have gone 37W 23D 25L in their last 85 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Bolton away?
Plymouth's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.49 PPG; Bolton away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2021, when Plymouth won Plymouth 3-0 Bolton.
Plymouth's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bolton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 3, Bolton have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Plymouth 1-2 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Bolton?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 67%, Bolton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Bolton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Plymouth's games and 60% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Plymouth's recent matches and 70% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Plymouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.34 xG and Bolton 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 35% | Draw 25% | Bolton 39%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.24 PPG, Bolton 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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