Peterborough 1-3 Doncaster – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Peterborough at 57%, yet in-form Doncaster provide a compelling counter-argument — this Peterborough vs Doncaster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Doncaster in League One (matchday 46). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Doncaster (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Doncaster have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Doncaster arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Doncaster and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Peterborough 1–2 Doncaster — a Doncaster win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Doncaster — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Doncaster 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 59% | Doncaster 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Peterborough surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Doncaster have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.87 xG and Doncaster 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.201 / defence 1.057 | Doncaster attack 0.822 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.177. Data: built from Peterborough's last 91 games and Doncaster's last 45.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 57% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 20%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.75 | Draw 4.46 | Doncaster 4.91. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Doncaster (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Doncaster's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 70% (last 10 home games) | Doncaster 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Doncaster | Competition: League One, matchday 46 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 57% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Peterborough 1.87 / Doncaster 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.201 / def 1.057 | Doncaster attack 0.822 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Doncaster xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Doncaster FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Doncaster kick off?
Peterborough vs Doncaster kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Doncaster?
Peterborough 1 - 3 Doncaster.
Where is Peterborough vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Doncaster part of?
Peterborough vs Doncaster is a League One fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 57% chance of winning, Doncaster a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Peterborough and Doncaster will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Doncaster's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Doncaster's attack (0.82x) against Peterborough's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 91 games and Doncaster's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.46
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.90
1.02
Doncaster xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
31.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Doncaster Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.02 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Doncaster?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 91 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 28W 20D 43L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Doncaster's form line: 40W 21D 30L from 91 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Doncaster are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 45 home games (16W 13D 16L).
On the road, Doncaster have gone 19W 8D 18L from their last 45 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 1.32 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Doncaster
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Doncaster (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Doncaster
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Doncaster Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Doncaster in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 20D 43L in their last 91 games (1.14 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 40W 21D 30L in their last 91 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Doncaster away?
Doncaster's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.36 PPG; Doncaster away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Peterborough and Doncaster, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Doncaster have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Doncaster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
3
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Doncaster H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Doncaster?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 0, Doncaster have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Doncaster last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Peterborough 0-2 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Doncaster?
Doncaster have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Doncaster 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 51% (Doncaster).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games; Doncaster in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Doncaster Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Doncaster matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 49% of Doncaster's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Doncaster matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 51% of Doncaster's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Doncaster matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Peterborough's recent matches and 67% of Doncaster's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Doncaster beat Peterborough 1-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.87 xG and Doncaster 1.02 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Doncaster outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Doncaster attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 57% | Draw 22% | Doncaster 20%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Doncaster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 59%, Doncaster 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Doncaster's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 46
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →