Cheltenham 0-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cheltenham welcome Lincoln to Completely-Suzuki Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 7 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cheltenham's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Completely-Suzuki Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Completely-Suzuki Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League One this season, Lincoln have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Lincoln's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cheltenham's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cheltenham's 20% rate and Lincoln's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cheltenham, 1 for Lincoln and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 51% versus Lincoln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 51% | Lincoln 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.88 xG and Lincoln 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.703 / defence 1.093 | Lincoln attack 0.927 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.048. Cheltenham's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 80 Cheltenham games / 79 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 29% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 39%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Lincoln 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 20% | Lincoln 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 29% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cheltenham 0.88 / Lincoln 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.703 / def 1.093 | Lincoln attack 0.927 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lincoln xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Lincoln kick off?
Cheltenham vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Cheltenham 0 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Cheltenham vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Lincoln part of?
Cheltenham vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 29% chance of winning, Lincoln a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cheltenham and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
Record (2 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Lincoln in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.70) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
29%
3.43
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
1.94
1.06
Lincoln xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.06 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 23W 22D 34L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 23W 27D 29L from 79 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.15 PPG, Lincoln on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (16W 10D 13L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 9D 18L from 39 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.10 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 23W 22D 34L in their last 79 games (1.15 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 23W 27D 29L in their last 79 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Lincoln away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.49 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lincoln have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Lincoln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
2
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Lincoln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cheltenham 1-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 49%, Lincoln 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cheltenham) and 49% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 26% of games; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 54% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cheltenham's recent games and 49% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Lincoln tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cheltenham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Cheltenham and Lincoln drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.88 xG and Lincoln 1.06 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lincoln landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Lincoln attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 29% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 39%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 51%, Lincoln 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.15 PPG, Lincoln 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.