🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Northampton and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.95 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Stevenage attack 0.65 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 34% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 33%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 52%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (67 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stevenage's trading profile (67 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.22 PPG, Stevenage 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights