Northampton 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 4W 2D 4L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stevenage — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Northampton, 3 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (67 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (67 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 54% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 52% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.95 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.853 / defence 1.225 | Stevenage attack 0.654 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.162. Data: 69 Northampton games / 67 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 34% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 33%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Stevenage 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 40% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 34% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 0.95 / Stevenage 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.853 / def 1.225 | Stevenage attack 0.654 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Northampton (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stevenage xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stevenage kick off?
Northampton vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 1 January 2025 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Northampton 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Northampton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stevenage part of?
Northampton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 34% chance of winning, Stevenage a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
Record (7 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 3W.
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
34%
2.92
33%
3.06
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.88
0.93
Stevenage xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Northampton and 0.93 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 22W 16D 29L from 67 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 27W 19D 21L across 67 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.22 PPG, Stevenage on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 15W 6D 10L from 31 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Northampton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stevenage's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.12 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 27W 19D 21L in their last 67 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stevenage away?
Northampton's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.65 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 45%, Stevenage 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Northampton) and 48% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stevenage in 39%; Northampton have failed to score in 26% of games; Stevenage in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Northampton's recent matches and 42% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Northampton's recent games and 48% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Northampton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Northampton and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.95 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Stevenage attack 0.65 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 34% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 33%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 52%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (67 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (67 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.22 PPG, Stevenage 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.