Northampton 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 19). Kick-off is Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 1.00 PPG versus Peterborough's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Northampton, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2024, ended Northampton 1–5 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 64 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (last 64 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Peterborough 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 50% | Peterborough 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Northampton surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Peterborough have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.873 / defence 0.971 | Peterborough attack 1.113 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.098. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Northampton's projected output up. Data: built from Northampton's last 64 games and Peterborough's last 63.
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.29 | Draw 3.88 | Peterborough 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Northampton 40% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Northampton 1.47 / Peterborough 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.873 / def 0.971 | Peterborough attack 1.113 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Peterborough xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 9 December 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Peterborough a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.87) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 64 games and Peterborough's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.88
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.19
Peterborough xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Northampton and 1.19 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 15D 28L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.61 PPG from 64 outings (30W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.22 PPG, Peterborough on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.63 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Northampton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.89 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 64%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Northampton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 30W 13D 21L in their last 64 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.63 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won Peterborough 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 47%, Peterborough 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Northampton) and 63% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Peterborough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Northampton's games and 63% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Northampton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Northampton's matches and 63% of Peterborough's.
Do Northampton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Northampton's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Peterborough 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 50%, Peterborough 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.22 PPG, Peterborough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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