🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Peterborough at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Peterborough and Crawley Town meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Peterborough have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 4W 2D 4L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Crawley Town (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Peterborough, 1.20 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 67% | Crawley Town 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.98 xG and Crawley Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.377 / defence 1.308 | Crawley Town attack 0.700 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Peterborough games / 18 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Peterborough 60% | Draw 21% | Crawley Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Crawley Town 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights