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Poisson model favours Stevenage (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crawley Town face Stevenage.

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Full Analysis

Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Stevenage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Stevenage away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Stevenage hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 1–3 with Stevenage winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stevenage have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Stevenage 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Stevenage 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.856 / defence 1.280 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Data: 28 Crawley Town games / 74 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.

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