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Dominant Charlton run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Northampton 0-5 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.12 xG and Charlton 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 0.85 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 31% | Charlton 28%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 52%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.25 PPG, Charlton 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights