Northampton 0-5 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Northampton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Northampton, 1.10 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Northampton 1W, Charlton 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 54% versus Charlton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 52% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.12 xG and Charlton 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.922 / defence 0.942 | Charlton attack 0.802 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.131. Data: 66 Northampton games / 65 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 31% | Charlton 28%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 50% | Charlton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 31% | Charlton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Northampton 1.12 / Charlton 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.922 / def 0.942 | Charlton attack 0.802 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Northampton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Charlton xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Charlton kick off?
Northampton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Charlton?
Northampton 0 - 5 Charlton.
Where is Northampton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Charlton part of?
Northampton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Northampton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Northampton and Charlton in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.80x) against Northampton's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.21
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Charlton xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Northampton and 0.85 for Charlton, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 15D 28L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 17W 26D 22L from 65 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Northampton against 1.18 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.68 PPG from 31 outings (15W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Northampton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charlton have gone 6W 14D 11L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.26 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Charlton have gone 17W 26D 22L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Charlton away?
Northampton's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.68 PPG; Charlton away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 0-5 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 48%, Charlton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Northampton) and 36% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Northampton's recent matches and 61% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Northampton's recent games and 36% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Charlton tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charlton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Northampton 0-5 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.12 xG and Charlton 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 0.85 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 31% | Charlton 28%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 52%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.25 PPG, Charlton 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.