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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Northampton 1-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.15 xG and Cardiff 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Cardiff attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 25%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 43%, Cardiff 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 1.18 PPG, Cardiff 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights