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Poisson model rates Northampton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Northampton and Cardiff meet at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Northampton's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Northampton's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cardiff have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in League One this season, Cardiff have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Northampton, 1.60 for Cardiff — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 48% versus Cardiff 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 43% | Cardiff 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.15 xG and Cardiff 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.890 / defence 0.910 | Cardiff attack 0.835 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.037. Data: 61 Northampton games / 14 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Cardiff 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 40% | Cardiff 40% BTTS from recent games.

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