Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Charlton travel to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 6W 3D 1L at Hillsborough — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sheffield Wednesday are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sheffield Wednesday, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Wednesday trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 47% versus Charlton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 41% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.103 / defence 0.894 | Charlton attack 0.794 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Sheffield Wednesday's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Sheffield Wednesday games / 33 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Draw 28% | Charlton 22%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 4.55. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Charlton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Draw 28% | Charlton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.47 / Charlton 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.103 / def 0.894 | Charlton attack 0.794 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Sheffield Wednesday 2 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 50% chance of winning, Charlton a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday's attack at 1.10x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.57
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.34
0.87
Charlton xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.87 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 15W 10D 7L from 32 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 16L across 32 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Wednesday by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 15W 10D 7L in their last 32 games (1.72 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 5D 16L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Charlton away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.07 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Charlton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 47%, Charlton 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 60% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sheffield Wednesday's games and 73% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 60% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Charlton in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Charlton 2-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.87 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Charlton attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Draw 28% | Charlton 22%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 41%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.