🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Northampton defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Mansfield Town 0-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Northampton 0.95 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Northampton attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 30% | Northampton 29%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Northampton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Northampton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mansfield Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Northampton's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Northampton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights