🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Northampton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Northampton travel to One Call Stadium to take on Mansfield Town. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mansfield Town at One Call Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all League One games this season, Northampton have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Northampton away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mansfield Town 1.30 PPG, Northampton 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 4, Northampton 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Mansfield Town winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Mansfield Town trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Northampton trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 63% versus Northampton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Northampton 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.17 xG and Northampton 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.767 / defence 1.051 | Northampton attack 0.760 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.185. Mansfield Town's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Mansfield Town games / 75 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 30% | Northampton 29%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Northampton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 50% | Northampton 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights