Lincoln 3-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stockport County travel to LNER stadium to take on Lincoln in League One (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lincoln stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lincoln at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lincoln carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lincoln have won 2, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Lincoln 2–1 Stockport County — a Lincoln win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 49% versus Stockport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 48% | Stockport County 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 2.00 xG and Stockport County 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.431 / defence 0.788 | Stockport County attack 0.882 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.161. Lincoln carry an above-average attack rating of 1.431 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lincoln have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Stockport County's projected output down. Data: built from Lincoln's last 82 games and Stockport County's last 80.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 65% | Draw 21% | Stockport County 14%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.53 | Draw 4.87 | Stockport County 7.01. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lincoln's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lincoln 60% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: LNER stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 65% | Draw 21% | Stockport County 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Lincoln 2.00 / Stockport County 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.431 / def 0.788 | Stockport County attack 0.882 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Stockport County xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Stockport County kick off?
Lincoln vs Stockport County kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at LNER stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Lincoln 3 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Lincoln vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at LNER stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Stockport County part of?
Lincoln vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 65% chance of winning, Stockport County a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lincoln and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Lincoln vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lincoln's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 82 games and Stockport County's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.87
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.80
0.81
Stockport County xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
2%
51.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.81 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln's recent record stands at 39W 21D 22L from 82 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 41W 22D 19L across 82 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.68 PPG, Stockport County on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 23W 10D 8L from their last 41 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 16W 13D 12L across their last 41 away games, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.49 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 39W 21D 22L in their last 82 games (1.68 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 41W 22D 19L in their last 82 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Stockport County away?
Lincoln's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.93 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stockport County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lincoln have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Lincoln's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lincoln
0
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stockport County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 3, Stockport County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Lincoln 3-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Stockport County?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 56%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lincoln) and 42% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lincoln's recent matches and 54% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lincoln's recent games and 42% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Lincoln's recent matches and 76% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Stockport County 3-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 2.00 xG and Stockport County 0.81 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.43 / defence 0.79 against Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 65% | Draw 21% | Stockport County 14%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 48%, Stockport County 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.68 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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