Leyton Orient 0-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leyton Orient at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leyton Orient vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leyton Orient host Stockport County at Gaughan Group Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Leyton Orient — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leyton Orient's home record at Gaughan Group Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaughan Group Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Leyton Orient have won 2, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with Leyton Orient winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leyton Orient in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 38% versus Stockport County 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 47% | Stockport County 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.24 xG and Stockport County 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 1.006 / defence 0.641 | Stockport County attack 1.023 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 0.641 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Leyton Orient games / 28 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 23%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Stockport County 4.35. Leyton Orient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leyton Orient are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 0% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Leyton Orient 1.24 / Stockport County 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 1.006 / def 0.641 | Stockport County attack 1.023 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Stockport County xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Stockport County kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Leyton Orient 0 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County part of?
Leyton Orient vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 47% chance of winning, Stockport County a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Leyton Orient and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Leyton Orient 2W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Stockport County in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (1.01) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.37
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.01
0.78
Stockport County xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.78 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Leyton Orient have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 31W 16D 26L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 40W 19D 14L from 73 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leyton Orient.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leyton Orient have posted 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (16W 8D 12L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 16W 11D 9L from 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.90 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Stockport County in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Blended
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 31W 16D 26L in their last 73 games (1.49 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 40W 19D 14L in their last 73 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.56 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stockport County in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leyton Orient and Stockport County runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Leyton Orient
4
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 2, Stockport County have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 36%, Stockport County 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Leyton Orient) and 64% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Leyton Orient have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 72% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 64% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Stockport County tend to score early?
Leyton Orient have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Leyton Orient 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Leyton Orient 0-1 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.24 xG and Stockport County 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leyton Orient fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.01 / defence 0.64 against Stockport County attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 23%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 47%, Stockport County 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.