Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Wrexham at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Wrexham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Wrexham's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.10 PPG versus Wrexham's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Wrexham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Crawley Town's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Wrexham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wrexham have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (74 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wrexham in-play tendencies (74 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Wrexham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Wrexham 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.876 / defence 1.214 | Wrexham attack 0.766 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. Data: 26 Crawley Town games / 28 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Wrexham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Wrexham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Wrexham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Crawley Town 1.13 / Wrexham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.876 / def 1.214 | Wrexham attack 0.766 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Wrexham xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Wrexham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 Wrexham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Wrexham part of?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Wrexham a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Wrexham 3W.
What form are Crawley Town and Wrexham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Wrexham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.88x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.47
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.24
1.10
Wrexham xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.10 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 29W 13D 32L from 74 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 41W 17D 16L across 74 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 15W 6D 14L from 35 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wrexham's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.76 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Wrexham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 13D 32L in their last 74 games (1.35 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 41W 17D 16L in their last 74 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Wrexham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.46 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Wrexham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wrexham go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2024, when Wrexham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Wrexham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
4
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Wrexham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Wrexham 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 37% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 31%; Wrexham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 49% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 37% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Wrexham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Wrexham attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Wrexham 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wrexham's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.