Wigan 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Lincoln meet at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at The Brick Community Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lincoln (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 47% versus Lincoln 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Lincoln 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.06 xG and Lincoln 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.841 / defence 1.092 | Lincoln attack 0.743 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.186. Data: 73 Wigan games / 74 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Lincoln 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 40% | Lincoln 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Wigan 1.06 / Lincoln 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.841 / def 1.092 | Lincoln attack 0.743 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Wigan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lincoln xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Lincoln kick off?
Wigan vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Wigan 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Wigan vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Lincoln part of?
Wigan vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 37% chance of winning, Lincoln a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wigan and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
Record (5 meetings): Wigan 2W | Draws 2 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in?
Wigan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wigan's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.74x) against Wigan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 73/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.27
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Lincoln xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Wigan and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Wigan and 0.96 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan's recent record stands at 29W 16D 28L from 73 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 30W 22D 21L across 73 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Wigan against 1.53 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 17W 7D 12L from 36 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 14W 12D 10L across 36 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.36 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 29W 16D 28L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 30W 22D 21L in their last 73 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Lincoln away?
Wigan's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.61 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Wigan or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wigan
4
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 36%, Lincoln 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Wigan) and 33% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%; Wigan have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Wigan's recent matches and 47% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Wigan's recent games and 33% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Lincoln tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Wigan and Lincoln drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.06 xG and Lincoln 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Lincoln attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 37% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 32%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Lincoln 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.41 PPG, Lincoln 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.