Leyton Orient 1-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leyton Orient vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Brisbane Road to face Leyton Orient in League One (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Leyton Orient (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Leyton Orient's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Leyton Orient are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plymouth away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Plymouth arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Leyton Orient edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Leyton Orient 1–0 Plymouth — a Leyton Orient win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Leyton Orient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 48% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 57% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.22 xG and Plymouth 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.980 / defence 1.045 | Plymouth attack 1.266 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.266, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Leyton Orient's last 76 games and Plymouth's last 31.
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 44%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 3.28 | Draw 3.96 | Plymouth 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leyton Orient 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Brisbane Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Leyton Orient 1.22 / Plymouth 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.980 / def 1.045 | Plymouth attack 1.266 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Plymouth xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Leyton Orient vs Plymouth kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Brisbane Road.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Plymouth?
Leyton Orient 1 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Brisbane Road.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Plymouth part of?
Leyton Orient vs Plymouth is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 30% chance of winning, Plymouth a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Leyton Orient and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leyton Orient vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leyton Orient's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.27x) against Leyton Orient's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Leyton Orient's last 76 games and Plymouth's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
30%
3.28
25%
3.96
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.74
1.52
Plymouth xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.52 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leyton Orient come into this having played 77 games, going 33W 14D 30L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.12 PPG from 77 outings (23W 17D 37L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Leyton Orient against 1.12 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Leyton Orient's home form reads 18W 10D 10L across their last 38 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 38 away games (9W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Leyton Orient (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Leyton Orient and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 33W 14D 30L in their last 77 games (1.47 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 23W 17D 37L in their last 77 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Plymouth away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.68 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plymouth in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Plymouth have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leyton Orient have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Leyton Orient vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Plymouth?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Leyton Orient have won 1, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: Leyton Orient 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 45%, Plymouth 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Leyton Orient) and 50% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Plymouth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leyton Orient and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 37% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leyton Orient and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 50% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 71% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leyton Orient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Leyton Orient 1-3 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.22 xG and Plymouth 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Plymouth attack 1.27 / defence 0.90, drawn from 76/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 44%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 57%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.47 PPG, Plymouth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 33
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →