Ipswich 0-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 41 as Ipswich welcome Cambridge United to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ipswich's 30% rate and Cambridge United's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Cambridge United and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cambridge United trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 46% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 44% | Cambridge United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.68 xG and Cambridge United 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.926 / defence 0.726 | Cambridge United attack 0.759 / defence 1.638. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.165. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.638 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Ipswich games / 39 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 13%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Cambridge United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 30% | Cambridge United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 39% | xG Ipswich 1.68 / Cambridge United 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.926 / def 0.726 | Cambridge United attack 0.759 / def 1.638 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cambridge United xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Cambridge United kick off?
Ipswich vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Cambridge United?
Ipswich 0 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Ipswich vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Cambridge United part of?
Ipswich vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 62% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ipswich and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Cambridge United in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.94
13%
7.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.32
0.64
Cambridge United xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
7.65
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
2%
40.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.64 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich's recent record stands at 17W 12D 10L from 39 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 15L across 39 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.62 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 10W 7D 2L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 5D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.21 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 games (1.62 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Cambridge United away?
Ipswich's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.95 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2022, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ipswich
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Cambridge United 1-1 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 47%, Cambridge United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ipswich) and 53% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cambridge United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ipswich's recent matches and 53% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ipswich's recent games and 53% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Ipswich 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Ipswich 0-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.68 xG and Cambridge United 0.64 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ipswich fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.93 / defence 0.73 against Cambridge United attack 0.76 / defence 1.64, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 13%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 44%, Cambridge United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.62 PPG, Cambridge United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.