Charlton 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 1 for Lincoln and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 49% versus Lincoln 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Lincoln 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.891 / defence 1.057 | Lincoln attack 0.884 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.165. Lincoln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Charlton games / 39 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Lincoln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 10% | Lincoln 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Charlton 1.24 / Lincoln 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.891 / def 1.057 | Lincoln attack 0.884 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lincoln xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Lincoln kick off?
Charlton vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Charlton 1 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Charlton vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Lincoln part of?
Charlton vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 39% chance of winning, Lincoln a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charlton and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.88x) against Charlton's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.32
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.33
1.09
Lincoln xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Charlton and 1.09 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 7D 18L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 11W 9D 19L from 39 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Charlton against 1.08 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 11W 9D 19L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Lincoln away?
Charlton's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.58 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Charlton or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lincoln in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Charlton
4
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Lincoln have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 32%, Lincoln 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Charlton) and 53% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 26% of games; Lincoln in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Charlton's recent matches and 63% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Charlton's recent games and 53% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Lincoln tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lincoln defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.09 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lincoln outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Lincoln attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Lincoln 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Lincoln 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.26 PPG, Lincoln 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.