Ipswich 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ipswich at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ipswich and Plymouth meet at Portman Road in League One, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Ipswich, 2.40 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ipswich 0W, Plymouth 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 49% versus Plymouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 46% | Plymouth 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.25 xG and Plymouth 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.937 / defence 0.790 | Plymouth attack 1.186 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.175. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Ipswich games / 39 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 38% | Draw 31% | Plymouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Plymouth 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 30% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 38% | Draw 31% | Plymouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Ipswich 1.25 / Plymouth 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.937 / def 0.790 | Plymouth attack 1.186 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Plymouth kick off?
Ipswich vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Ipswich 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Ipswich vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Plymouth part of?
Ipswich vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 38% chance of winning, Plymouth a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ipswich and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Plymouth in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.19x) against Ipswich's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.22
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Plymouth xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.10 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ipswich's recent record stands at 16W 13D 10L from 39 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 9L across 39 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Ipswich against 1.90 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 9W 8D 2L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 9W 5D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Plymouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 16W 13D 10L in their last 39 games (1.56 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Plymouth away?
Ipswich's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.84 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Plymouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Plymouth 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Plymouth?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ipswich) and 53% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ipswich's games and 58% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ipswich's recent games and 53% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Plymouth tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Plymouth 1-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.25 xG and Plymouth 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.94 / defence 0.79 against Plymouth attack 1.19 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 38% | Draw 31% | Plymouth 31%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 46%, Plymouth 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.56 PPG, Plymouth 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.