Forest Green 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Bolt New Lawn plays host to Forest Green versus Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 3 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Forest Green have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forest Green's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at The Bolt New Lawn this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Cambridge United (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Forest Green, 0.70 for Cambridge United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Forest Green half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 51% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 42% | Cambridge United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 0.93 xG and Cambridge United 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.594 / defence 1.355 | Cambridge United attack 0.931 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.212. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Forest Green games / 65 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 1.96. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Forest Green 40% | Cambridge United 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Forest Green 0.93 / Cambridge United 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.594 / def 1.355 | Cambridge United attack 0.931 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Cambridge United xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Cambridge United kick off?
Forest Green vs Cambridge United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 December 2022 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Cambridge United?
Forest Green 2 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Forest Green vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Cambridge United part of?
Forest Green vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 23% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Forest Green and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forest Green and Cambridge United in?
Forest Green (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Forest Green's attack rating (0.59) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.93x) against Forest Green's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 19/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
23%
4.37
26%
3.88
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.46
1.53
Cambridge United xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
20.17
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.53 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Forest Green come into this having played 65 games, going 26W 20D 19L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.20 PPG from 65 outings (21W 15D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Forest Green against 1.20 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Forest Green's home form reads 16W 4D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (9W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Forest Green are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.14 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 26W 20D 19L in their last 65 games (1.51 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 21W 15D 29L in their last 65 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Cambridge United away?
Forest Green's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.62 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Forest Green
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Cambridge United 2-0 Forest Green.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 31%, Cambridge United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Forest Green) and 59% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Forest Green's recent matches and 59% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Forest Green's recent games and 59% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forest Green defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Cambridge United 2-1 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 0.93 xG and Cambridge United 1.53 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Forest Green beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.59 / defence 1.35 against Cambridge United attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 23% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 51%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Forest Green win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 42%, Cambridge United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.51 PPG, Cambridge United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forest Green win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.