Exeter City 3-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Exeter City face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Stockport County meet at St James Park in League One (matchday 44). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Exeter City's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stockport County's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Stockport County have the stronger record — 3 wins to Exeter City's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Exeter City 0–1 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 44% versus Stockport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 45% | Stockport County 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.08 xG and Stockport County 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.803 / defence 1.122 | Stockport County attack 1.011 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.134. Data: built from Exeter City's last 89 games and Stockport County's last 87.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.20 | Draw 3.61 | Stockport County 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 30% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Exeter City 1.08 / Stockport County 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.803 / def 1.122 | Stockport County attack 1.011 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Stockport County xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Stockport County kick off?
Exeter City vs Stockport County kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Stockport County?
Exeter City 3 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Exeter City vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Stockport County part of?
Exeter City vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 31% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Exeter City and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Exeter City vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.01x) against Exeter City's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 89 games and Stockport County's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.61
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.37
1.29
Stockport County xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.29 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 89 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 27W 22D 40L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 45W 24D 20L from 89 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Exeter City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 44 home games (16W 12D 16L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 16W 15D 13L from their last 44 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Exeter City are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.53 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 27W 22D 40L in their last 89 games (1.16 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 45W 24D 20L in their last 89 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.36 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stockport County in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Exeter City
1
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Stockport County?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 0, Stockport County have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Exeter City 3-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 43%, Stockport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Exeter City) and 41% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Exeter City's recent matches and 57% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Exeter City's recent games and 41% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Exeter City's recent matches and 77% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City and Stockport County share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 44, as Exeter City and Stockport County drew 3-3 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.08 xG and Stockport County 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 89/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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