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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 17, as Exeter City and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.39 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Burton Albion attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 79/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 41% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 33%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.23 PPG, Burton Albion 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights