Exeter City 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Burton Albion meet at St James Park in League One (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Exeter City have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Exeter City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Burton Albion have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Exeter City, 2 for Burton Albion and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2025, ended Exeter City 0–0 Burton Albion — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 44% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Burton Albion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.39 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.843 / defence 1.203 | Burton Albion attack 0.874 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.162. Exeter City's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Data: built from Exeter City's last 79 games and Burton Albion's last 80.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 41% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 33%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.44 | Draw 3.82 | Burton Albion 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Exeter City 30% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 41% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Exeter City 1.39 / Burton Albion 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.843 / def 1.203 | Burton Albion attack 0.874 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Burton Albion xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Burton Albion kick off?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Exeter City 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Exeter City vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Burton Albion part of?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 41% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Exeter City and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Exeter City vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.87x) against Exeter City's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 79 games and Burton Albion's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.82
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.62
1.22
Burton Albion xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.22 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 26W 19D 34L from 79 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 35L across 79 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Exeter City against 1.09 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 15W 10D 14L from their last 39 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 13D 18L across their last 39 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 19D 34L in their last 79 games (1.23 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 21W 23D 35L in their last 79 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Burton Albion away?
Exeter City's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.41 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Exeter City and Burton Albion, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Exeter City
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 46%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Exeter City) and 49% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Exeter City's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Exeter City's recent games and 49% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Exeter City's recent matches and 62% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 17, as Exeter City and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.39 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Burton Albion attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 79/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 41% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 33%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.23 PPG, Burton Albion 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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