Cheltenham 3-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cheltenham at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cheltenham host Port Vale at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in League One (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cheltenham have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cheltenham at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port Vale — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Port Vale have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Cheltenham have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cheltenham have won 1, Port Vale 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Cheltenham 2–1 Port Vale — a Cheltenham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 36% versus Port Vale 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 41% | Port Vale 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.66 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.991 / defence 1.070 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cheltenham's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 76 games and Port Vale's last 75.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 54% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 22%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 1.85 | Draw 4.10 | Port Vale 4.63. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 60% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 54% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cheltenham 1.66 / Port Vale 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.991 / def 1.070 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Port Vale xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Port Vale kick off?
Cheltenham vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Port Vale?
Cheltenham 3 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Cheltenham vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Port Vale part of?
Cheltenham vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 54% chance of winning, Port Vale a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cheltenham and Port Vale will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cheltenham vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.99x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 76 games and Port Vale's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.10
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.62
0.95
Port Vale xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.95 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 22W 17D 36L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 21W 17D 37L from 75 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.11 PPG, Port Vale on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 37 home games (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 8W 10D 19L from their last 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Cheltenham (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Cheltenham vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 22W 17D 36L in their last 75 games (1.11 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 21W 17D 37L in their last 75 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Port Vale away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.35 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Port Vale in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
4
Draws
0
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 2, Port Vale have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2025: Port Vale 0-0 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Port Vale?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 40%, Port Vale 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cheltenham) and 57% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 35% of games; Port Vale in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 51% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cheltenham's recent games and 57% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 65% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Port Vale 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Port Vale 3-2 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.66 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port Vale outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 54% | Draw 24% | Port Vale 22%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 41%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.11 PPG, Port Vale 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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