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Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Northampton 3-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Northampton 1.62 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Northampton landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.33 against Northampton attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 30% | Draw 25% | Northampton 45%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Northampton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Northampton's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Northampton 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights