Cheltenham 0-3 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cheltenham and Stevenage meet at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Completely-Suzuki Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cheltenham are significantly better at Completely-Suzuki Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 32% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cheltenham 43% | Stevenage 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.85 xG and Stevenage 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.727 / defence 1.202 | Stevenage attack 1.036 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.136. Cheltenham's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Cheltenham games / 8 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 23% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 50%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 2.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 50% | Stevenage 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 23% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Cheltenham 0.85 / Stevenage 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.727 / def 1.202 | Stevenage attack 1.036 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Stevenage xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Stevenage kick off?
Cheltenham vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Stevenage?
Cheltenham 0 - 3 Stevenage.
Where is Cheltenham vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Stevenage part of?
Cheltenham vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 23% chance of winning, Stevenage a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cheltenham and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Stevenage in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.04x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
23%
4.42
27%
3.68
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.27
1.41
Stevenage xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.41 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 13D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.85 PPG from 54 outings (28W 16D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cheltenham's home form reads 8W 8D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (9W 11D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.33 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 28W 16D 10L in their last 54 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.23 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
0
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Stevenage 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 38%, Stevenage 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Cheltenham and 27% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stevenage in 31%; Cheltenham have failed to score in 42% of games; Stevenage in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 46% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cheltenham's recent games and 27% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Stevenage tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stevenage run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Cheltenham 0-3 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.85 xG and Stevenage 1.41 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stevenage outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 23% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 50%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 43%, Stevenage 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.