Stevenage 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Charlton at The Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Stevenage have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charlton in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.954 / defence 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.870 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.128. Data: 7 Stevenage games / 52 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Stevenage 1.26 / Charlton 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.954 / def 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.870 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Charlton kick off?
Stevenage vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Stevenage vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Charlton part of?
Stevenage vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stevenage and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Charlton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.95) and Charlton's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.54
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.27
1.01
Charlton xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.01 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 27W 15D 10L from 52 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 20L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 17W 4D 4L from 25 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.48 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Charlton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 27W 15D 10L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Charlton have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Charlton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.20 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charlton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 36%, Charlton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Charlton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Charlton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.01 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.