Stevenage 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Charlton at The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stevenage stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Stevenage's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Stevenage have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Charlton 52%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.954 / defence 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.870 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.128. Data: built from Stevenage's last 7 games and Charlton's last 52.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.38 | Draw 3.54 | Charlton 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 8 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Stevenage 1.26 / Charlton 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.954 / def 1.031 | Charlton attack 0.870 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Charlton kick off?
Stevenage vs Charlton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Stevenage vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Charlton part of?
Stevenage vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 8) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stevenage and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Stevenage vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.95) and Charlton's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 7 games and Charlton's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.54
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.27
1.01
Charlton xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.01 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 27W 15D 10L from 52 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 20L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 17W 4D 4L from their last 25 home games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.48 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 62%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Stevenage vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Charlton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 27W 15D 10L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Charlton have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Charlton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.20 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Charlton in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Charlton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Charlton 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 36%, Charlton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Charlton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stevenage's recent matches and 68% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.01 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 42% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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