Burton Albion 0-4 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.80 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Shrewsbury winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 54% versus Shrewsbury 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Shrewsbury 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.36 xG and Shrewsbury 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.079 / defence 1.154 | Shrewsbury attack 0.866 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.120. Data: 71 Burton Albion games / 70 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 42% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Shrewsbury 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Shrewsbury 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 42% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.36 / Shrewsbury 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.079 / def 1.154 | Shrewsbury attack 0.866 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Shrewsbury xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Burton Albion 0 - 4 Shrewsbury.
Where is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury part of?
Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 42% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 1.08x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.87x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.62
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.48
1.12
Shrewsbury xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.12 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 18W 18D 34L from 70 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 31L across 70 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.13 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 12W 10D 12L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 6W 10D 18L across 34 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 18W 18D 34L in their last 70 games (1.03 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 20W 19D 31L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Shrewsbury away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.35 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burton Albion have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won 0-4 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Burton Albion
0
Draws
4
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Shrewsbury 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Burton Albion) and 32% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 32% of games; Shrewsbury in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 41% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Burton Albion's recent games and 32% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shrewsbury run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Burton Albion 0-4 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.36 xG and Shrewsbury 1.12 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Shrewsbury attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 42% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Shrewsbury 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.03 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.