Derby 4-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 25 as Derby welcome Accrington ST to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Accrington ST have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Derby, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 46% versus Accrington ST 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.094 / defence 0.870 | Accrington ST attack 0.724 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.120. Data: 23 Derby games / 68 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 60% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 16%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Accrington ST 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Derby (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Accrington ST 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 60% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Derby 1.63 / Accrington ST 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.094 / def 0.870 | Accrington ST attack 0.724 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Derby (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Accrington ST xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Accrington ST kick off?
Derby vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 2 January 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Accrington ST?
Derby 4 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Derby vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Accrington ST part of?
Derby vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 60% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Derby and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Derby and Accrington ST in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.08
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Derby xG
Total xG
2.34
0.70
Accrington ST xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
3%
32.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Derby and 0.70 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Derby have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 20D 24L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST's form line: 22W 17D 29L from 68 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.35 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.88 PPG from 33 outings (18W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 8W 6D 19L from 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.21 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 24W 20D 24L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 22W 17D 29L in their last 68 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Accrington ST away?
Derby's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.88 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Derby or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 2 January 2023, when Derby 4-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Accrington ST?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Accrington ST 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 48% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Accrington ST in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 39% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Accrington ST 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 0.70 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Accrington ST attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 23/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 60% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 16%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.35 PPG, Accrington ST 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.