AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 0W 6D 4L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Charlton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Charlton's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Charlton are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 0W, Charlton 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 52% versus Charlton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 48% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.675 / defence 1.290 | Charlton attack 0.737 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.165. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 AFC Wimbledon games / 40 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 28% | Draw 32% | Charlton 40%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Charlton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 28% | Draw 32% | Charlton 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.86 / Charlton 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.675 / def 1.290 | Charlton attack 0.737 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Charlton xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 28% chance of winning, Charlton a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Charlton in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.68) and Charlton's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.74x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.14
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.97
1.11
Charlton xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.11 for Charlton, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 6W 15D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 14W 7D 19L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Wimbledon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (2W 11D 6L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Charlton in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 15D 19L in their last 40 games (0.82 PPG), while Charlton have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.89 PPG; Charlton away: 0.95 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Charlton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 58%, Charlton 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AFC Wimbledon) and 58% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 68% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 58% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Charlton tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Charlton in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as AFC Wimbledon and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.68 / defence 1.29 against Charlton attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 28% | Draw 32% | Charlton 40%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 48%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.