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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charlton and Lincoln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton and Lincoln finished level at 2-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.79 xG and Lincoln 0.72 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lincoln outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.23 / defence 0.66 against Lincoln attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 63% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 14%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Lincoln's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.45 PPG, Lincoln 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights