🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Charlton at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Lincoln encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Lincoln make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 41. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Charlton's overall League One record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Charlton's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at The Valley this term (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Lincoln (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Charlton's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lincoln's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Charlton, 3 for Lincoln and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 59% versus Lincoln 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 50% | Lincoln 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.79 xG and Lincoln 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.228 / defence 0.662 | Lincoln attack 0.980 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.112. Charlton's defence rating of 0.662 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 86 Charlton games / 86 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 63% | Draw 23% | Lincoln 14%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Lincoln 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Lincoln lead the H2H ledger, but Charlton carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 30% | Lincoln 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights